A slow retail market? Online sales aren't totally to blame

Published on Tue, 05/07/2011, 12:50:58

|

By Claire Reilly

SYDNEY, NSW: The slowing retail market has been closely linked to the boom in online shopping of late, and many retailers are concerned online trade will outstrip bricks and mortar. However, according to figures released today by Macquarie Equities Research, e-commerce shouldn’t take all the blame for a lagging retail economy.

Rob Blythe, an analyst specialising in retail at Macquarie, said that while online sales are on the increase, “The greatest adverse impact on retail sales growth over 2010–11E is increased saving.”

In a broad examination of the scope of online retailing, Blythe reported that the growth in online sales of goods, excluding services such as travel and event ticket sales, was 8.4 per cent during the 2010 calendar year (CY10), compared to 2.4% in 2009.

“Over CY10 online retail accounted for 21% of total synthetic retail sales growth,” a figure that combines data on online sales from Forrester research, with Australian Bureau of Statistics figures on bricks and mortar sales.

Click here to sign up for our FREE daily newsletter

Clearly then, online retail is on the increase, but Blythe was quick to note that this was not the sole reason for the recent slump in the retail market.

“The amount of commentary about online retail sales seems to have created an impression online sales growth is responsible for poor retail trade!” he said.

“Online retail is not new” he added, reporting that well-known clicks and mortar stores such as JB Hi-Fi have been maintaining an online presence since 2006. Other stores such as Bing Lee, Dick Smith and The Good Guys are also attempting to reach a broader market and expand distribution by being online.

According to Blythe, the cause for the slow-down can also be explained by “the housing sector, with lower household formation rates and a consumption hangover – whereby consumers simply have ‘too much stuff’!”

In addition, compared to previous years marked by consumption, Australians are now saving more than ever. “Australia witnessed an extended period of consumption growth over the period 2004–2008,” said Blythe.

“This period of excess consumption growth was funded by income growth, an explosion in household credit growth (approximately +15%) and a rundown in cash savings rates. However, this whole cycle started to reverse over the 2010 financial year, with households now saving circa $45 billion per annum compared to a long-run average of circa $30 billion.

“The period 1986–2004 was dominated by strong housing and population growth. Retail volume growth (as measured by the ABS) averaged 4.2% per annum compound. Since then...retail volume growth rates, whilst positive, have continued to decline.”
 




Hi Claire, Thanks for your report which tends to bring a bit of balance to the topic of how much retail has/is suffering at the hands of online. This is something retailers can be upbeat about...I think? I would not be the first person to think it is the case most Australians, like me, are pessimistic about the resilience of our economy; mass media informs us we have, as the pollies put it, dodged a bullet and we're given a salutary reminder of this fact every night on the news: "Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal...which economy will be the next to implode?" If I have quoted any shock jock unfairly here, I apologise. With almost daily reminders of how weak and slow the recovery is from the GFC in the US and the amount of trouble that economy continues to struggle with, from mounting deficits, to the US' almost 10% unemployment, Australians perceive there's plenty of pain to come. Right? I am not so sure about that, but hey, this stuff is not in the news because it is of no importance to an Australian who enjoys a standard of living well above most he/she shares the planet with is it? If these powerful examples of things going horribly wrong, such a long way away from our 'land of plenty' are not enough to paralyse Australians with anxiety about spending a few dollars here and there, we can all think of a number of reasons why a carbon tax is so toxic. So while none us knows how that’s going to affect us, really, none of us can possibly survive that, and even if we do, the NBN will finish us off anyway. My rant ends there. With due consideration for the tragic and devastating consequences being felt by Australians still reeling from a once in one hundred year flood, I find it difficult to think of a time in my life when Australians have seemingly had to grapple with so many reasons to be pessimistic and negative about their future. I cannot remember a time when unemployment has been as low as it is; our balance of trade is in surplus and interest rates relatively neutral, where most Australians have been so pessimistic about their future. I think we are in new territory here. I would be interested in an article which examines that aspect of the retail business in Australia today a bit more closely. Further, I think most retailers and people in a business like mine would like to how much of this lull in the CE market can be attributed to consumer sentiment across various demographic groups. Perhaps Mr Blythe can comment about that? It is my guess online shoppers/buyers and people who are spending (relatively) more at present are both younger and more upscale, people who tend to be more upbeat about the future, and the opposite would be true of people 40 or even 45plus, in the lower to middle and upper middle market demographics. In my opinion, both retailers and suppliers would like to know how long it will be until the Aussie battlers (and those doing a bit better than that, who have pulled their horns in largely because they perceive the end is nigh) decide ‘she'll be right, so just get on with it’? It's only when consumer sentiment starts to swing in a positive direction and more people believe they live in a land offering more promise than the messages they get bombarded with through the mass media would have them believe, will retailers, suppliers and online merchants all start to do better. Keep up the good work!
Posted by Tom DiTerlizzi. 05/07/2011 07:58:07 PM
Add your own comment




3,805
current latest news

New Laurastar LIFT - A New Way Of Ironing

Compact and light, LIFT is the first steam station with a handle that lets you take it everywhere from the ironing board to the hanger. It is as effective for a final touch on a hanging garment as for ironing a shirt on the board itself.

Wed 01/05/2013 01:16:14 / Read More »

Electrolux TURBOPRO stick mixer

The Electrolux TURBOPRO stick mixer combines excellent performance and powerful features. This intuitive stick mixer will take your cuisine to the next level, whether it's whisking an egg, grinding a curry paste or blending an icy cold cocktail.

Fri 26/04/2013 12:27:51 / Read More »

Electrolux Ultracaptic takes cleaning to a whole new hygienic level

The bagless vacuum cleaner that makes dirt and dust disposal a truly fuss-free affair! Coping with dust clouds, re-vacuuming spilled dirt and handling grubby tangles of hair with bare hands are now things of the past.

Fri 19/04/2013 10:53:16 / Read More »

TOPFIELD brings home entertainment to the fast lane - launches TF-12-3-A

The TOPFIELD-12-3-A: premium family pack for viewing on the go. Recognising a shift in consumer viewing trends, TOPFIELD has just launched its first in-car iPad accessory to ensure customers feel at home even when on the move.

Fri 15/03/2013 11:53:05 / Read More »
current join to free enews